Coming off deep tournament runs in 2023, both teams had preseason expectations bolstered by betting markets that suggested they could once again make noise in March. However, reality proved much different.
Preseason Hype Meets a Harsh Reality
For Iowa State, a first-round exit at the hands of Michigan was a disappointing conclusion to a season that had flashes of brilliance.
The Cyclones, a No. 11 seed, nearly pulled off the upset against the No. 6 Wolverines, but a late-game surge from Michigan sealed an 80-74 defeat. Audi Crooks, who had been a force all season, delivered another dominant performance with 28 points, but Iowa State ultimately fell short.
“It’s a game of runs. Sometimes it ends in your favor, sometimes it doesn’t,”
Crooks reflected after the loss.
Iowa, meanwhile, had even loftier expectations despite losing Caitlin Clark, the face of college basketball, to the WNBA. The No. 6 seed Hawkeyes were outclassed by No. 3 seed Oklahoma in a 96-62 rout, ending their tournament in the second round.
Without Clark, Iowa’s offense sputtered, shooting just 36.4% from the field, and the Sooners overwhelmed them on the boards with a 64-33 rebounding advantage.
“Certainly, the way that we played wasn’t how we had been playing,”
head coach Jan Jensen admitted.
Comparing This Year to Last Year
Both programs had reason to believe they could make deep runs again in 2024. Iowa reached the national championship game last season, while Iowa State had a respectable showing in 2023. However, Iowa sports betting markets were more cautious this time around.
Iowa’s odds of making the Final Four ranged from +2000 to +4500 before the tournament, a stark contrast to last year when they were among the favorites with Clark leading the charge. Iowa State, on the other hand, was a long shot from the start, with odds as high as +25000 to win it all.
Iowa’s tournament exit was particularly painful, given how dominant they had been last season. In 2023, Clark’s heroics propelled the Hawkeyes through one of the most memorable March Madness runs in recent history.
This year, without her generational talent, they struggled to find a consistent offensive identity.
“We’re hard to guard,”
Oklahoma’s Skylar Vann said after their blowout victory, highlighting how Iowa’s defense was unable to contain the Sooners’ balanced attack.
Iowa State, while never expected to go deep in the tournament, still had hopes of pulling off an upset or two. Crooks was one of the best post players in the country, and their midseason form suggested they could be a dangerous low seed. Yet, Michigan’s perimeter shooting and late-game execution proved too much for them to overcome.
In the end, Iowa and Iowa State’s early exits serve as a stark reminder of how difficult sustained success can be in college basketball. Preseason expectations and betting odds only tell part of the story — when it comes to March Madness, nothing is guaranteed.
As both programs head into the offseason, they’ll look to reload and regroup, hoping that next year brings better fortune.
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